Denham Springs Louisiana Real Estate Buzz!

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This is the monthly Keller Williams Realty “This Month In Real Estate US” edition.

http://www.denhamspringsappraisers.com/ - Denham Springs FHA Appraisers Study: Livingston Parish Housing Bucks National Trend Plunge Of 15 Year Lows!

This morning, “The Guys” from TBWS reported existing home sale fell 27.2%, the lowest number of sales since 1968, see the video below.

The Baton Rouge Business Report is reporting on a National Assocation of Realtors housing study and I quote: “Sales of previously occupied homes fell to the lowest level in 15 years last month as the economy weakened. The National Association of Realtors says July’s sales fell by more than 27% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million. It was the largest monthly drop on records dating back to 1968. June’s sales pace was revised downward to 5.26 million. Home sales picked up in the spring when the government was offering tax credits. But the market has struggled since the tax credits expired on April 30. It would take 12.5 months to sell off the 4 million unsold homes on the market at the current sales pace. The median sale price was $182,600, up 0.7 percent from a year ago.” I have included three charts below from Mortgage News Daily’s July Existing Home Sales: Recap and Charts to help put this in perspective. I then discuss the local Baton Rouge Housing Market Numbers.

While the NAR study covers the entire U.S., how do the local Western Livingston Parish housing sales numbers compare? By Western Livingston Parish, I’m defining Denham Springs, Watson and Walker, MLS Areas 81, 82 and 83, the more active portion of Livingston Parish. The answer is that I see Western Livingston bucking the national trend. Within the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors data extracted from 1999 through August 25, 2010, covering almost 12 total years, the lowest yearly rate of home sales was in 1999 with 759. As of 8/25/2010, there have been 654 home sales. If this pace of home sales continues, 2010 projections will be approximately 980 sales, which would conclude a healty housing market.

The chart below, extracted from data from the GBRMLS on August 20, 2010, shows that the median sales price in MLS Area 81, Denham Springs north of Interstate 12, has continued to remain stable to increasing slightly. The chart actually shows an increase in median sales price from 8/2009 to 8/2010 of +3.49%. The chart also shows a fairly low 7.4% REO or Foreclosure Rate for this market as well, 235 foreclosures out of 3,175 homes sales since 1/1/2004.

HOWEVER

I want to responsibly point out that just because the NATIONAL “number” of home sales have been declining in 2010 doesn’t mean the LOCAL “housing prices” are equally declining significantly! And, this is an important point. As a home appraiser, the one thing I hear from local homeowners is a misunderstanding of the local market. They say things to me like, “I know this is a horrible time to be refinancing and getting an appraisal with the housing market the way it is, but we just couldn’t pass up the low mortgage rate”. I hear this constantly from locals and you can’t watch the national news and apply that to our local market. Linda Fredericks, former President of the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors, is correct when she delivered the message that housing marketings are “local” and you can’t apply the national news headlines to a one size fits all local housing market!

Take The Baton Rouge Business ReportPoll: When will the U.S. housing market recover? So far results are:

NOTE: Data Used With Permission of the GBRAR MLS. Data was extracted on 8/25/2010 from periods 1/1/2009 through 8/25/2010.

Tags: Western Livingston Parish, Denham Springs Housing Study, Denham Springs Real Estate, Watson Louisiana Housing Study, Walker Louisiana Housing Study

http://www.denhamspringsappraisers.com/ – Denham Springs Antique District Rated Third In The South By AAA Southern Traveler

The following below is directly quoted from The Livingston Parish News Mobile Section.

“DENHAM SPRINGS – Introducing the South’s Best Antique Districts: New Orleans, Natchez and Denham Springs. That’s right, Denham Springs.

These cities are rated one-two-three in a poll published this month in AAA Southern Traveler.

More than 1,300 ballots from members of the nation’s largest motor travel club were used to determine what places were their favorites to visit, eat, play and shop. The bi-monthly magazine circulates to 220,000 American Automobile Association member households.

“That’s amazing,” said Al Bye, president of the Denham Springs Antique Merchants Association. “I’m pretty proud of that because I’ve been working with the association 10 years now. It was always good, but we have really banded together as merchants to make it a unique antique district. That’s because we want to get people to come back. Our business depends on it.”

The famous stretch of antique stores along Magazine and Royal streets in New Orleans were far and away the most popular, followed by the historic river city of Natchez in Mississippi. Yet then came small town Denham Springs, which has been quietly growing its reputation for flair in recent years, receiving similar recognition in other tourism forums.

“A very big congratulations to the Denham Antique District,” Mayor Jimmy Durbin said. “A designation like this does not happen without hard work by the Antique District Merchants Association and Denham Springs Mainstreet.”

Donna Jennings, the Mainstreet program director, said the recognition is part of a larger trend of improvements that will soon see upgraded paver brick sidewalks downtown – construction beginning next week – and a street park developed by volunteer organizations next to Old City Hall on Mattie Street.

“When you have a dedicated mayor and council determined to keep that area thriving, then a merchant’s association and a main street committee, it works,” she said.”

http://www.denhamspringsappraisers.com/ – Denham Springs Home Appraisers: Westminster Estates Mid Year 2010 Report

Solds In Westminster Estates from 1/2009 to 7/02/2010 revealed:
Average Sales Price: $155,838
Average Sold Price Per Sq. Ft.: $92.76/sf
Median Sold Price: $151,250
Number of Sales: 18
Low To High: $121,900 to $189,900
Number of Sold REO/Foreclosures Noted In MLS: 2
Current # Listings: 9
Current Listings Prices: $138,500 To $165,000

Data Used With Permission of the GBRAR MLS, extraced on 7/2/2010!

Author’s Bio:

Bill Cobb is Greater Baton Rouge’s reputable home appraiser frequently called upon by banks, homeowners, and savvy real estate investors to assess property values. A home appraiser with 18 years experience, Bill Cobb brings a wealth of knowledge to the table as a home appraiser.

Bill’s company, Accurate Valuations Home Appraisal Group, serves Greater Baton Rouge (East Baton Rouge Parish, West Baton Rouge Parish, Western Livingston Parish and Northern Ascension Parish).

Contact Bill Cobb and Accurate Valuations Home Appraisal Group for your next home appraisal:

Office: 225-293-1500, Cell: 225-953-0638

Fax: 1-866-663-6065

info@accuratevg.com

http://www.denhamspringsappraisers.com/

http://www.denhamspringsappraisers.com/ – What are your Denham Springs Real Estate Subdivision questions at mid year 2010? Which Western Livingston Parish subdivisions do you want an update on? Email us at info@accuratevg.com

http://www.batonrougerealestateappraisal.com/ – May 2010 Baton Rouge Housing Video: Numbers Show A Stable Market

Today is June 9, 2010 and by this time, the solds for May 2010 would have been reported within the local GBRAR MLS related to the $8,000 Tax Credit. The video below was prepared by Tony Zito, with Zito Real Estate Group, and shares the number of pending sales for each month from February 2010 to today on June 8 2010. Tony also shares the sales for each May from 2004 to this past May 2010. Be sure to check out Tony’s Blog @ http://perfectbatonrougerealestate.com/

The questions in my mind are these:

1.) What impact did the $8,000 Tax Credit have on Greater Baton Rouge area home sales in 2010 leading up to the April 30 deadline? In the video below, I think you’ll find that it had a significant impact on local home sales.

2.) Was our market functioning based solely on this government stimulus and will home sales drop off after this stimulus has been removed? The answer to this question and concern will be answered by the market in the coming months.

http://www.denhamspringsappraisers.com/ – Crystal Lakes Denham Springs: An Appraiser’s Perspective

Denham Springs resident and home appraiser, Bill Cobb, offers comments and advice on the holding pattern that Crystal Lakes has been in since this development began in approximately 2007.

I’ve watched Crystal Lakes for years now as my family and I have visited North Park and as I’ve driven down Burgess Road on my way to appraisal appointments. I knew why those first 5 and only homes weren’t selling and it had everything to do with “PRICE” in this Livingston Parish market. Let me say here and now that I believe Crystal Lakes will be a very nice development for the residents of Denham Springs when it’s more aligned with the overall pricing and quality that local residents can afford, which includes the $600/yr HOA Fee.

The developer is Spatz Development out of Chicago. I was told back in 2006 by Livingston Parish Builder, Dennis Calmes, that Spatz Development first went to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina and told the City that they’d like to help with the reconstruction of new homes. It was told to me that NOLA basically told Spatz that it would take at least a year or two before he could obtain his permits to build. So, Spatz Development bought the land for Crystal Lakes where it was much easier to do business. Spatz Development was trying to accomplish a positive thing for the local community. But, like other local developers in the past 4 years, Spatz Development overshot the anticipated price these homes would eventually sell for in a market that turned to more affordable housing options – a market where $136/sf+ for new home construction isn’t and wasn’t at all sustainable. Maybe in California where incomes are higher, but not in Livingston Parish Louisiana and not in other parts of Greater Baton Rouge either.

I recently appraised one of the 5 homes on Adora Ave in Crystal Lakes for a sale….approximately 3 years after this home was built. Why? One local Realtor I spoke with for this report said it had to do with “PRICE”. They stated that the developer built the 5 homes in 2007 and then tried to sell them by builder for something like $145/sf. The Realtor Active Rain Network shows a blog post back to 2/5/2008, Denham Springs Crystal Lake Development Is On Fire!, but according to MLS, it wasn’t until early 2009 when these homes were finally listed in MLS.

Trying To Be Too Much? YES! According to the Realtor I spoke with and MLS, the 5 homes range in living area size from 1,528sf all the way up to 3,125sf living area. That’s too wide a variance when the listing prices ranged from $189,900 to $435,000 on the same street, within 5 lots of one another. ADVICE: Build homes closer in living area size and closer in pricing!

Too High Of Quality? YES! Oh Yes, these are high quality homes, quality you might see in the garden homes section of Greystone Golf where residents pay $150/sf+. Was building this high of quality in this Denham Springs market a mistake? Obviously since it’s taken 3 to 3.5 years to sell just 2 of these 5 homes, it was a mistake. NOTE: 2 of the 5 homes are currently pending. ADVICE: Lower The Quality Some To Lower The Price To Make These Homes More Affordable!

It’s Very Easy To Build Too High Of Quality Homes For Denham Springs Market! As I said about Juban Parc and other developments in Western Livingston Parish, this market is 80% affordable type housing served by DR Horton and PCC/Vicknair Builders. What’s selling in bulk now in Livingston Parish in terms of new homes is in the $135,000 to $150,000 range. This was all explained in the recent Baton Rouge Business Report article, The Real Estate Mogul Of Livingston Parish and I don’t refute the findings in that article. Mr. Thomason is building and providing housing that people can actually afford. He’s meeting a need that builders that expect $130/sf to $150/sf for their homes are not meeting. He’s a smart man that builds homes based on the incomes of the local residents and knows what they can afford as opposed to the builders that think they’re entitled to $136 + per sq. ft..

Mr. Thomason is so confident that he can continue to meet that need better than other builders that he purchased $10,000,000 in lots in 2009 in Ascension Parish. And, Mr. Thomason is selling homes in bulk while other local builders aren’t doing nearly as well as in the insane local housing markets of late 2005 to early 2008, with builders expecting $136/sf+ for their homes. That was then and this is the much more sane 2010s. $128/sf+ in Livingston Parish generally doesn’t work as some builders AND THEIR BANKS have found out the hard way. The residents that bought those higher quality homes in Juban Parc early on are learning this lesson the hard way as well.

Other Homes In Crystal Lakes!

MY ULTIMATE ADVICE! According to the Realtor I spoke with representing Crystal Lakes, the plan is to make the homes both smaller and similar in size. My advice would be to make this development similar to the home size and quality found in Willow Pointe S/D off Hatchell Lane, where the homes range in size from 1500sf to 1800sf and in pricing from $170K to $214K. In this appraiser’s opinion, Crystal Lakes would be more desirable of a development than Willow Pointe because of the older section of Kemberly Heights one has to drive through to get to Willow Pointe and that onerous left turn onto Hatchell Lane in the mornings. However, Willow Pointe is closer to Florida and closer to Interstate 12, which makes a big difference when there are no plans in action whatsover to make the commute from Crystal Lakes to Florida Blvd or Interstate 12 less grueling. That 2 mile difference in the mornings and evenings can seem like an eternity in the worsening traffic of Denham Springs. Traffic in Denham Springs is a complete nightmare and it doesn’t appear that much of anything is being done to to help us wake up from this daily nightmare. Why is Hatchell Lane still a 2 Lane road in 2010? I better quit now!

Bill Cobb, with Accurate Valuations Group, is and has been a local home appraiser for 18 years now.